Archive for the ‘Lecture’ Category

Prinsip penulisan proposal skripsi dan laporan magang

May 19th, 2017 Comments off

Kepada mahasiswa bimbingan saya,

Berikut ini kami sampaikan Pedoman Umum Penulisan Proposal Skripsi dan Laporan Magang khusus berlaku dalam bimbingan saya.

Mohon digunakan sebagai patokan untuk menyusun proposal sebelum proposal diserahkan ke saya.

Terima kasih,


Malang, 19 Mei 2017

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Materi mata kuliah: Analisis Risiko Bisnis Internasional

September 18th, 2015 Comments off
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Materi untuk mata kuliah: Analisis Laporan Keuangan

September 18th, 2015 Comments off

Berikut adalah materi-materi untuk mata kuliah: Analisis Laporan Keuangan.

Harap mahasiswa bisa menggunakannya secara bijaksana.







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Materials for Investment Management class

March 18th, 2015 Comments off

Here compiled materials for Investment Management class.

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International Finance Seminar Class

March 2nd, 2015 Comments off

Dear Students in International Finance Seminar class,

Here one of materials


Good luck!!

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Null Hypothesis

January 17th, 2014 Comments off

After almost a year supervising students for conducting research and writing their final thesis, I found the students used to forget how to test hypothesis. First, students forgot to choose null hypothesis and the alternative before the sample is drawn. According to Kothari (2004), doing so can avoid the students from the error of deriving hypotheses from the data that he collects, and then testing the hypotheses from the same data. Please keep these considerations in mind when choosing the null hypothesis.

  1. The null hypothesis is the one which the researcher wishes to disprove; alternative hypothesis is the one which the researcher wishes to prove. Hence, a null hypothesis represents the hypothesis we attempt to reject, and alternative hypothesis represents all other possibilities.
  2. If the rejection of a certain hypothesis when it is actually true involves great risk, the researcher must take it as null hypothesis. It is because the probability of rejecting the hypothesis when it is true is α (the level of significance) which is chosen very small.
  3. The null hypothesis should be simple and specific, not state about or approximately a certain value. For example, µ = µH0 is a null hypothesis; while µ = µH0 or µ = µH0 or µ = µH0 is a composite or nonspecific or alternative hypothesis.

Second, they forgot hypotheses that they supposedly measured were the null hypothesis. The one we test is the null hypothesis; this is the one that we try to reject. Mostly students derive hypothesis from assumptions, as they are convinced by theories and are suggested by findings of prior studies. The assumptions lead them to construct hypotheses that they wish to accept, not to reject. However, they forgot to reverse the statement and develop the null hypothesis. Instead, students tested hypotheses that they desire to accept, it is the one that consistent with theories and prior studies.

A study proceeds hypothesis testing on the basis of null hypothesis, while it keeps the alternative hypothesis in our mind. According to Kothari (2004), this is because on the assumption that null hypothesis is true, one can assign the probabilities to different possible sample results. But, this cannot be done if we proceed with the alternative hypothesis.

Reference: CR Kothari (2004), Research Methodology: Methods and Techniques, New Age International Publishers, India.

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A material for the CSR class

December 14th, 2013 Comments off

Hi students,

Please find here a material from our last meeting in the CSR class (Dec 14th, 2013).

Please examine it as your preparation for the final exam.


Business ethics & social responsibility in tourist organizations


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Introduction to risk management

November 22nd, 2013 Comments off

After three years enjoyable time being a student in Japan, this is my first post =p

Attached here is a material for students who enroll in Risk Management 2013/2014 Academic Year.

Introduction to risk management

Please use the material wisely.

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Stock market terms

July 11th, 2010 Comments off

Fundamental & technical analysis

One of the advantage of recognizing  the time intention to trade is when the analyst or investor need to take data for analyzing stock market. Willingness to predict stock price in longer time means that investors need to compile fundamental data such as sales, earnings, dividends, interest rates and so forth. Yes, in this case, investors do fundamental analysis. How long it takes for relatively long time trading? McDonald suggested it for at least nine months.

Thus, if you’re interested in predicting price movements of less than six months, you should study technical data, he suggested. Technical analysis is the process of compiling and considering information gathered on the stock exchange floor, such as volume, current stock price, and short interest, in an effort to predict stock process.

Hence, examining fair value of stock actually is lying back to fundamental analysis. It is because fair value of stock determined by put fuzzy (uncertain) future dividends of stock as numerator (in the top) of fraction and interest rate raised to a power in the bottom (denominator). Interest rate is more certain than dividends of stock.

The pivotal point

Jesse Livermore emerged term of pivotal point to describe the situation in the market that gave a sign to start a trade. He convinced that he have always made money in his operation. But, the exact sign of when the pivotal point is arrived at is blurred and subjectively for someone else. A pivotal point essentially is a price or a moment in time form which trader know real soon which way the market will go. Thus, the location of the point depends on the model applied by traders to understand the market.

Theory of contrary opinion

When the vast majority of market participants think stock prices will advance, they usually decline. Likewise, when the vast majority thinks prices will decline, they advance. Prices will move contrary to what investors expect when those expectations have reached an extreme. The importance of the theory is the necessary and sufficient condition to signal the start of a major movement up or down in stock prices is extreme investor sentiment.

*APH2 m303, 2:27pm*

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The time intention of the trade

July 11th, 2010 Comments off

There is another way to differentiate investors categorized by the time intention of the trade. First category is short-term investors who seek profits from price movement that last from a day to a few weeks. They buy some stocks today with the intention to sell it in a few days. In this case, they live in a very small time world, where hours often seem like years.

Second category is intermediate term investors, who focus on prive movements lasting a month to many months. Their time world or scale is much larger than previous kind of investors. Then the third type is the long-term investors. They focus on movements of many months to a few years.

Recognize investors by their time intention to trade is important to legitimate investment activity in the realm market. Along with the feedback loop, then the stability of stock price will be understandable. McDonald explain that, generally market doers ignored short-term traders. They think short-term trading is less important than long-term investing. But, take a closer look at the amount of money invested by them which are about 30% of daily volume or more. This is a rather large percent. And dont say that these traders produce short-term price moves that last a day or two, and can be ignored. This is totally wrong, because this is where chaos theory and the power of feedback loops would be happened. Panic and nervous of short-term investors would be followed by intermediate-term investors, and so on. Yes, in this feedback loops, investors behave lies on emotional reactions.

Reference: McDonald, Michael. 2002. Predict market swings with technical analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. NY, USA.

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